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發信人: waiting.bbs@casamia.twbbs.org (永遠的追尋) 看板: AtmosSci
標 題: [新聞]氣候資料證實含有錯誤--紐約時報
發信站: casamia (08/28/05 07:01:25 Sun)
氣候研究在近十年來成為熱門話題，其研究結果對各項能源經濟政策
均有深遠影響，但至今學界對未來氣候的看法仍莫衷一是，除了對氣
候過程的了解不完整外，過去氣候觀測資料的不確定性也是一個原因
，姑且不論由冰芯岩芯等推導所得的古氣候紀錄，光是這二十年由探
空與衛星觀測所得的資料都含有種種問題，在上一期Science線上版發
表的三篇論文便指出對流層溫度資料中的錯誤，再度挑起各界對此問
題的關注，也顯示目前氣候研究意見紛歧的處境。前兩個星期的紐約
時報對此有一篇淺顯的報導，試譯並附上原文如下：
----------------------------------------------------------------------
紐約時報--氣候資料證實含有錯誤
Andrew Revkin
2005年八月12日報導
有些科學家曾以大氣最底部的對流層在過去兩個世紀內溫度並未升高，甚至在熱
帶地區還變冷的資料記錄為由，質疑人類造成的全球暖化是否真的如此嚴重。
這些過去的氣溫記錄是將數千筆由世界各地得到的探空氣球觀測以及數個短期氣
象衛星接續量測所得的資料合併而來。最近有兩項研究分別指出在用以組合資料
的複雜計算過程中有錯誤存在。
而另一向研究則顯示，若將運算中的錯誤去除，對流層的確有暖化現象，其趨勢
不但與地面氣溫升高的紀錄相符，也和電腦模式的預測結果一致。
「科學」雜誌的線上版已於昨天(8/11)刊載了上述三篇研究論文。
原始的對流層溫度紀錄是在漢斯維爾的阿拉巴馬大學科學家John Christy與Roy
Spencer由衛星資料得來的。他們承認錯誤存在，但也表示即使是修正後的資料，
其所顯示之暖化程度仍微不足道。
"我們還是認為這只是輕微的暖化"，Christy博士說。
但其他氣候專家卻相當重視這些新發表的研究結果，因為它解決了一些懸而未決
、過去一直被反對溫室氣體減量者做為理由的問題。
大學氣象學家Aln Rocock表示，"這些論文應該可以讓John Christy與其他對全
球暖化抱持懷疑論調的人，不會再用對流層與地表溫度趨勢間的不一致來質疑地
表溫度的紀錄或是氣候模式有問題存在。"
這些新發現將會被收入一份關於低層大氣溫度趨勢的報告中，這是布希政府為解
決氣候研究問題而成立的十年計畫所發表的第一次成果報告。
幾位參與這些研究的科學家說，新的研究成果得以產生要歸功於政府氣候計畫的
要求全員參加的五次會議。
論文其中一位作者，英國哈德里氣候預測與研究中心的探空資料專家Peter
Thorne說，"每次開會就像上拳擊場一樣"。
世界各地對地表溫度的測量早已行之有年，相較之下，從地表到約五英里（八
公里）高度的對流層氣溫記錄就少了很多。
至今Christy與Spencer博士仍然是唯一埋首於龐大氣象衛星資料，希望能間接推
導出對流層內各層氣溫的科學家。
他們以及其他科學家也嘗試分析全世界每天釋放兩次的七百多個氣象探空所收集
到的氣溫資料。
但是這些工作都相當繁雜且充滿不確定性。
衛星的運行軌道會隨時間偏離，衛星上承載的儀器會受日照與黑暗的影響，而由
不同衛星接續觀測的資料還必須針對每個精密儀器本身的特性進行校正。
Carl Mears與Frank Wentz這兩位隸屬於Remote Sensing Systems公司的科學家
從2001年開始對Christy與Spencer博士的衛星資料與計算方法進行驗證。這家公
司位在加州聖塔羅莎，專門為NASA從事衛星資料分析。
他們與其他幾個小組不但發現暖化趨勢較原先預估的要更為顯著，Mears與Went
博士的論文還找到原始計算中一個未曾被發現的錯誤，更加確定了對流層正在暖
化，尤其是在熱帶地區。
在今年一個政府主持的會議中，阿拉巴馬大學的科學家就已被告知這項在校正衛
星軌道偏離計算中的錯誤
而新研究中關於探空氣球的部份只找到一個可能因儀器受太陽加熱影響所造成的
錯誤。
如果把這個影響考慮進去，氣溫資料同樣顯示了與理論相符的暖化現象，特別是
熱帶。
研究探空資料論文的第一作者，耶魯大學大氣物理學家Steven Sherwood認為，
現在有爭議的地方只在於氣候模式的細節部份。不會再有人質疑未來是否會有顯
著的全球變遷現象了。
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
NY Times
Errors Cited in Assessing Climate Data
By ANDREW C. REVKIN
Published: August 12, 2005
Some scientists who question whether human-caused global warming poses a
threat have long pointed to records that showed the atmosphere's lowest
layer, the troposphere, had not warmed over the last two decades and had
cooled in the tropics.
Now two independent studies have found errors in the complicated calculations
used to generate the old temperature records, which involved stitching
together data from thousands of weather balloons lofted around the world and
a series of short-lived weather satellites.
A third study shows that when the errors are taken into account, the
troposphere actually got warmer. Moreover, that warming trend largely agrees
with the warmer surface temperatures that have been recorded and conforms to
predictions in recent computer models.
The three papers were published yesterday in the online edition of the
journal Science.
The scientists who developed the original troposphere temperature records
from satellite data, John R. Christy and Roy W. Spencer of the University of
Alabama in Huntsville, conceded yesterday that they had made a mistake but
said that their revised calculations still produced a warming rate too small
to be a concern.
"Our view hasn't changed," Dr. Christy said. "We still have this modest
warming."
Other climate experts, however, said that the new studies were very
significant, effectively resolving a puzzle that had been used by opponents
of curbs on heat-trapping greenhouse gases.
“These papers should lay to rest once and for all the claims by John Christy
and other global warming skeptics that a disagreement between tropospheric
and surface temperature trends means that there are problems with surface
temperature records or with climate models,” said Alan Robock, a
meteorologist at Rutgers University.
The findings will be featured in a report on temperature trends in the lower
atmosphere that is the first product to emerge from the Bush administration's
10-year program intended to resolve uncertainties in climate science.
Several scientists involved in the new studies said that the government
climate program, by forcing everyone involved to meet five times, had helped
generate the new findings.
"It felt like a boxing ring on occasion," said Peter W. Thorne, an expert on
the weather balloon data at the Hadley Center for Climate Prediction and
Research in Britain and an author of one of the studies.
Temperatures at thousands of places across the surface of the earth have been
measured for generations. But far fewer measurements have been made of
temperatures in the air from the surface through the troposphere, which
extends up about five miles.
Until recently Dr. Christy and Dr. Spencer were the only scientists who had
plowed through vast volumes of data from weather satellites to see if they
could indirectly deduce the temperature of several layers within the
troposphere.
They and other scientists have also tried to analyze temperature readings
gathered by some 700 weather balloons lofted twice a day around the world.
But each of those efforts has been fraught with complexities and
uncertainties.
The satellites' orbits shift and sink over time, their instruments are
affected by sunlight and darkness, and data from a succession of satellites
has to be calibrated to account for eccentricities of sensitive instruments.
Starting around 2001, the satellite data and methods of Dr. Christy and Dr.
Spencer were re-examined by Carl A. Mears and Frank J. Wentz, scientists at
Remote Sensing Systems, a company in Santa Rosa, Calif., that does satellite
data analysis for NASA.
They and several other teams have since found more significant warming trends
than the original estimate.
But the new paper, by Dr. Mears and Dr. Wentz, identifies a fresh error in
the original calculations that, more firmly than ever, showed warming in the
troposphere, particularly in the tropics.
The error, in a calculation used to adjust for the drift of the satellites,
was disclosed to the University of Alabama scientists at one of the
government-run meetings this year, Dr. Christy said.
The new analysis of data from weather balloons examined just one possible
source of error, the direct heating of the instruments by the sun.
It found that when data were examined in a way that accounted for that
effect, the temperature record produced a warming, particularly in the
tropics, again putting the data in line with theory.
"Things being debated now are details about the models," said Steven
Sherwood, the lead author of the paper on the balloon data and an atmospheric
physicist at Yale. "Nobody is debating any more that significant climate
changes are coming."
--
※ 發信站: 卡莎米亞(bbs.as.ntu.edu.tw)
◆ From: 131.215.228.112
標 題: [新聞]氣候資料證實含有錯誤--紐約時報
發信站: casamia (08/28/05 07:01:25 Sun)
氣候研究在近十年來成為熱門話題，其研究結果對各項能源經濟政策
均有深遠影響，但至今學界對未來氣候的看法仍莫衷一是，除了對氣
候過程的了解不完整外，過去氣候觀測資料的不確定性也是一個原因
，姑且不論由冰芯岩芯等推導所得的古氣候紀錄，光是這二十年由探
空與衛星觀測所得的資料都含有種種問題，在上一期Science線上版發
表的三篇論文便指出對流層溫度資料中的錯誤，再度挑起各界對此問
題的關注，也顯示目前氣候研究意見紛歧的處境。前兩個星期的紐約
時報對此有一篇淺顯的報導，試譯並附上原文如下：
----------------------------------------------------------------------
紐約時報--氣候資料證實含有錯誤
Andrew Revkin
2005年八月12日報導
有些科學家曾以大氣最底部的對流層在過去兩個世紀內溫度並未升高，甚至在熱
帶地區還變冷的資料記錄為由，質疑人類造成的全球暖化是否真的如此嚴重。
這些過去的氣溫記錄是將數千筆由世界各地得到的探空氣球觀測以及數個短期氣
象衛星接續量測所得的資料合併而來。最近有兩項研究分別指出在用以組合資料
的複雜計算過程中有錯誤存在。
而另一向研究則顯示，若將運算中的錯誤去除，對流層的確有暖化現象，其趨勢
不但與地面氣溫升高的紀錄相符，也和電腦模式的預測結果一致。
「科學」雜誌的線上版已於昨天(8/11)刊載了上述三篇研究論文。
原始的對流層溫度紀錄是在漢斯維爾的阿拉巴馬大學科學家John Christy與Roy
Spencer由衛星資料得來的。他們承認錯誤存在，但也表示即使是修正後的資料，
其所顯示之暖化程度仍微不足道。
"我們還是認為這只是輕微的暖化"，Christy博士說。
但其他氣候專家卻相當重視這些新發表的研究結果，因為它解決了一些懸而未決
、過去一直被反對溫室氣體減量者做為理由的問題。
大學氣象學家Aln Rocock表示，"這些論文應該可以讓John Christy與其他對全
球暖化抱持懷疑論調的人，不會再用對流層與地表溫度趨勢間的不一致來質疑地
表溫度的紀錄或是氣候模式有問題存在。"
這些新發現將會被收入一份關於低層大氣溫度趨勢的報告中，這是布希政府為解
決氣候研究問題而成立的十年計畫所發表的第一次成果報告。
幾位參與這些研究的科學家說，新的研究成果得以產生要歸功於政府氣候計畫的
要求全員參加的五次會議。
論文其中一位作者，英國哈德里氣候預測與研究中心的探空資料專家Peter
Thorne說，"每次開會就像上拳擊場一樣"。
世界各地對地表溫度的測量早已行之有年，相較之下，從地表到約五英里（八
公里）高度的對流層氣溫記錄就少了很多。
至今Christy與Spencer博士仍然是唯一埋首於龐大氣象衛星資料，希望能間接推
導出對流層內各層氣溫的科學家。
他們以及其他科學家也嘗試分析全世界每天釋放兩次的七百多個氣象探空所收集
到的氣溫資料。
但是這些工作都相當繁雜且充滿不確定性。
衛星的運行軌道會隨時間偏離，衛星上承載的儀器會受日照與黑暗的影響，而由
不同衛星接續觀測的資料還必須針對每個精密儀器本身的特性進行校正。
Carl Mears與Frank Wentz這兩位隸屬於Remote Sensing Systems公司的科學家
從2001年開始對Christy與Spencer博士的衛星資料與計算方法進行驗證。這家公
司位在加州聖塔羅莎，專門為NASA從事衛星資料分析。
他們與其他幾個小組不但發現暖化趨勢較原先預估的要更為顯著，Mears與Went
博士的論文還找到原始計算中一個未曾被發現的錯誤，更加確定了對流層正在暖
化，尤其是在熱帶地區。
在今年一個政府主持的會議中，阿拉巴馬大學的科學家就已被告知這項在校正衛
星軌道偏離計算中的錯誤
而新研究中關於探空氣球的部份只找到一個可能因儀器受太陽加熱影響所造成的
錯誤。
如果把這個影響考慮進去，氣溫資料同樣顯示了與理論相符的暖化現象，特別是
熱帶。
研究探空資料論文的第一作者，耶魯大學大氣物理學家Steven Sherwood認為，
現在有爭議的地方只在於氣候模式的細節部份。不會再有人質疑未來是否會有顯
著的全球變遷現象了。
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
NY Times
Errors Cited in Assessing Climate Data
By ANDREW C. REVKIN
Published: August 12, 2005
Some scientists who question whether human-caused global warming poses a
threat have long pointed to records that showed the atmosphere's lowest
layer, the troposphere, had not warmed over the last two decades and had
cooled in the tropics.
Now two independent studies have found errors in the complicated calculations
used to generate the old temperature records, which involved stitching
together data from thousands of weather balloons lofted around the world and
a series of short-lived weather satellites.
A third study shows that when the errors are taken into account, the
troposphere actually got warmer. Moreover, that warming trend largely agrees
with the warmer surface temperatures that have been recorded and conforms to
predictions in recent computer models.
The three papers were published yesterday in the online edition of the
journal Science.
The scientists who developed the original troposphere temperature records
from satellite data, John R. Christy and Roy W. Spencer of the University of
Alabama in Huntsville, conceded yesterday that they had made a mistake but
said that their revised calculations still produced a warming rate too small
to be a concern.
"Our view hasn't changed," Dr. Christy said. "We still have this modest
warming."
Other climate experts, however, said that the new studies were very
significant, effectively resolving a puzzle that had been used by opponents
of curbs on heat-trapping greenhouse gases.
“These papers should lay to rest once and for all the claims by John Christy
and other global warming skeptics that a disagreement between tropospheric
and surface temperature trends means that there are problems with surface
temperature records or with climate models,” said Alan Robock, a
meteorologist at Rutgers University.
The findings will be featured in a report on temperature trends in the lower
atmosphere that is the first product to emerge from the Bush administration's
10-year program intended to resolve uncertainties in climate science.
Several scientists involved in the new studies said that the government
climate program, by forcing everyone involved to meet five times, had helped
generate the new findings.
"It felt like a boxing ring on occasion," said Peter W. Thorne, an expert on
the weather balloon data at the Hadley Center for Climate Prediction and
Research in Britain and an author of one of the studies.
Temperatures at thousands of places across the surface of the earth have been
measured for generations. But far fewer measurements have been made of
temperatures in the air from the surface through the troposphere, which
extends up about five miles.
Until recently Dr. Christy and Dr. Spencer were the only scientists who had
plowed through vast volumes of data from weather satellites to see if they
could indirectly deduce the temperature of several layers within the
troposphere.
They and other scientists have also tried to analyze temperature readings
gathered by some 700 weather balloons lofted twice a day around the world.
But each of those efforts has been fraught with complexities and
uncertainties.
The satellites' orbits shift and sink over time, their instruments are
affected by sunlight and darkness, and data from a succession of satellites
has to be calibrated to account for eccentricities of sensitive instruments.
Starting around 2001, the satellite data and methods of Dr. Christy and Dr.
Spencer were re-examined by Carl A. Mears and Frank J. Wentz, scientists at
Remote Sensing Systems, a company in Santa Rosa, Calif., that does satellite
data analysis for NASA.
They and several other teams have since found more significant warming trends
than the original estimate.
But the new paper, by Dr. Mears and Dr. Wentz, identifies a fresh error in
the original calculations that, more firmly than ever, showed warming in the
troposphere, particularly in the tropics.
The error, in a calculation used to adjust for the drift of the satellites,
was disclosed to the University of Alabama scientists at one of the
government-run meetings this year, Dr. Christy said.
The new analysis of data from weather balloons examined just one possible
source of error, the direct heating of the instruments by the sun.
It found that when data were examined in a way that accounted for that
effect, the temperature record produced a warming, particularly in the
tropics, again putting the data in line with theory.
"Things being debated now are details about the models," said Steven
Sherwood, the lead author of the paper on the balloon data and an atmospheric
physicist at Yale. "Nobody is debating any more that significant climate
changes are coming."
--
※ 發信站: 卡莎米亞(bbs.as.ntu.edu.tw)
◆ From: 131.215.228.112
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